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Sheffield Weds 2–0 Colchester

← EFL Championship 2006-07 Β· Tue, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D Gallagher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield Weds win47%1.90
Draw28%3.25
Colchester win25%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots5
3On target1
5Corners3
3Fouls3
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield WedsColchester
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)2.200.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)10.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.412.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.39
elo1498.431533.92
elo momentum (last 5)6.48-52.97
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
league points49.0053.00
league rank12.0010.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win2.005.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.321.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.207.00
state index-0.26-0.98
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60