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Leeds 1–0 Crewe

← EFL Championship 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: N Miller

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win58%1.57
Draw24%3.75
Crewe win17%5.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots11
7On target4
7Corners2
10Fouls3
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeedsCrewe
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.19
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.122.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.33
elo1586.281413.60
elo momentum (last 5)-16.1832.99
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
league points75.0039.00
league rank5.0023.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win8.002.00
rest days4.005.00
season ppg1.700.89
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-8.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.00
state index-0.22-0.35
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00