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Wolves 2–2 Coventry

← EFL Championship 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D Gallagher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wolves win49%1.83
Draw28%3.20
Coventry win22%4.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots10
7On target6
5Corners4
15Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWolvesCoventry
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
coach days1921.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.002.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.38
elo1548.851487.67
elo momentum (last 5)-27.99-11.66
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
league points59.0052.00
league rank7.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.441.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.008.60
state index-0.24-0.50
travel kmβ€”45.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80