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Luton 1–0 Ipswich

← EFL Championship 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L Mason

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Luton win41%2.20
Ipswich win31%3.00
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots7
6On target3
6Corners8
13Fouls8
4Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLutonIpswich
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
coach daysβ€”1278.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.30
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.46
elo1513.481535.53
elo momentum (last 5)-24.76-3.42
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points52.0053.00
league rank12.009.00
matches since blank13.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
rest days6.966.96
season ppg1.301.32
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0011.60
state index-0.22-0.15
travel kmβ€”109.70
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40