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Leeds 0–1 Crystal Palace

← EFL Championship 2005-06 Β· Tue, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Joslin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leeds win45%2.00
Draw28%3.20
Crystal Palace win27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots6
2On target3
5Corners2
15Fouls19
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeedsCrystal Palace
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)1.400.40
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.802.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.36
dominance (last 5)0.500.61
elo1614.721594.43
elo momentum (last 5)10.385.70
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
league points71.0064.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank6.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win2.001.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.871.68
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.20
state index0.600.34
travel kmβ€”283.00
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20