← EFL Championship 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N Miller
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 47% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
| Derby win | 25% | 3.60 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 4.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1507.58 | 1498.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.53 | 16.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 48.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.60 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.02 |
| travel km | — | 133.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |