← EFL Championship 2003-04 · Sun, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P Crossley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Wimbledon win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wimbledon | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1329.28 | 1451.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.17 | 38.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |