← EFL Championship 2003-04 · Sat, Mar 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P Prosser
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 49% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.30 |
| Crewe win | 24% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.