← EFL Championship 2002-03 · Wed, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Pearson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 44% | 2.10 |
| Millwall win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Derby | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| coach days | — | 4063.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1426.93 | 1506.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.36 | 3.98 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 49.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 7.80 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |