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Norwich 3–2 Bradford

← EFL Championship 2002-03 Β· Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Joslin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win54%1.66
Draw26%3.60
Bradford win20%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots11
8On target8
7Corners1
12Fouls22
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichBradford
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
coach days2828.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.003.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.553.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1516.161463.91
elo momentum (last 5)17.7129.00
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points58.0049.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg1.491.26
shot diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.80
state index0.150.26
travel kmβ€”242.90
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60