← FIFA World Cup 2014 · Tue, Jul 1, 09:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Belgium win | 49% | 60% | 2.10 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.65 | fair |
| United States win | 23% | 17% | 4.42 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 4 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador, Bahia) |