← FIFA World Cup 2014 · Wed, Jul 9, 09:00 PM UTC · pens 2–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Argentina win | 39% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Netherlands win | 31% | 34% | 3.22 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +7% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 0 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Arena Corinthians (São Paulo, São Paulo) |