← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Fri, Jun 15, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay win | 65% | 42% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 34% | 4.24 | value: +44% |
| Egypt win | 11% | 24% | 9.20 | value: +122% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Egypt | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1202.00 | 4489.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1699.19 | 1812.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.77 | 19.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |