← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sat, Jun 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 74% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.65 | fair |
| Iceland win | 8% | 10% | 13.00 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Iceland |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 380.00 | 1688.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1894.55 | 1663.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.01 | -24.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.76 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| state index | 0.78 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |