← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sun, Jun 17, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 53% | 41% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +3% |
| Costa Rica win | 18% | 30% | 5.70 | value: +73% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Costa Rica | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2846.00 | 259.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1712.39 | 1699.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.32 | 17.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.35 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |