← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Mon, Jun 18, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 43% | 73% | 2.34 | value: +70% ⚠ |
| Draw | 32% | 19% | 3.15 | fair |
| South Korea win | 25% | 8% | 4.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sweden | South Korea |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 747.00 | 1813.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1722.13 | 1687.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.32 | -41.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.82 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |