← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Tue, Jun 19, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 52% | 77% | 1.92 | value: +48% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 16% | 3.50 | fair |
| Japan win | 19% | 7% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colombia | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2361.00 | 1206.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1844.03 | 1737.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.73 | -14.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| state index | 0.94 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |