← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Wed, Jun 20, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 58% | 40% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 35% | 3.85 | value: +35% |
| Morocco win | 16% | 25% | 6.50 | value: +60% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portugal | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1388.00 | 870.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1844.03 | 1726.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.07 | -5.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| squad age | 27.18 | — |
| state index | 1.19 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |