← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Thu, Jun 21, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark win | 51% | 70% | 2.00 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| Australia win | 21% | 9% | 4.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Denmark | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 842.00 | 171.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 1756.75 | 1740.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.82 | 18.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.27 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |