← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Fri, Jun 22, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 81% | 89% | 1.24 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.15 | fair |
| Costa Rica win | 5% | 2% | 21.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brazil | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 751.00 | 2851.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 2028.71 | 1697.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.19 | -45.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| squad age | 25.88 | — |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.67 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |