← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sat, Jun 23, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 73% | 70% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.54 | value: +6% |
| Tunisia win | 8% | 11% | 13.50 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belgium | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 691.00 | 1088.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1874.97 | 1676.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.50 | -24.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.17 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| squad age | 27.57 | — |
| state index | 2.05 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |