← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sun, Jun 24, 01:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 80% | 74% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 21% | 7.00 | value: +44% |
| Panama win | 5% | 6% | 24.25 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 661.00 | 1604.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1882.60 | 1643.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.14 | -34.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.52 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| squad age | 25.98 | — |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |