← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Mon, Jun 25, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Irmatov
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 72% | 58% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 28% | 6.12 | value: +69% |
| Morocco win | 9% | 15% | 12.97 | value: +88% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Khalid Boutaïb · Morocco |
| 14' | ⚽ | Khalid Boutaïb · Morocco |
| 19' | ⚽ | Isco · Spain |
| 19' | ⚽ | Isco · Spain |
| 21' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Morocco |
| 21' | 🟨 | Karim El Ahmadi · Morocco |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Morocco |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Morocco |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mbark Boussoufa · Morocco |
| 31' | 🟨 | Manuel da Costa · Morocco |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mbark Boussoufa · Morocco |
| 31' | 🟨 | Manuel Da Costa · Morocco |
| 81' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Morocco |
| 81' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Morocco |
| 88' | 🟨 | Monir El Kajoui · Morocco |
| 89' | 🟨 | Munir El Kajoui · Morocco |
| 90'+1' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · Spain |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Morocco |
| 90' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Morocco |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · Spain |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spain | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 24.00 | 875.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1953.12 | 1728.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.43 | -23.67 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Stadion Kaliningrad |
| 0.92 |
| — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.00 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 72.50 | — |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 3.03 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.50 | — |
| squad age | 29.21 | 27.86 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.12 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |