β FIFA World Cup 2018 Β· Tue, Jun 26, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. ΓakΞΉr
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Argentina win | 65% | 51% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 29% | 5.55 | value: +59% |
| Nigeria win | 16% | 20% | 6.60 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Saint-Petersburg Stadium |