← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Wed, Jun 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 61% | 65% | 1.65 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| Costa Rica win | 13% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Costa Rica |
| 11' | 🟨 | Cristian Gamboa · Costa Rica |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joel Campbell · Costa Rica |
| 29' | 🟨 | Joel Campbell · Costa Rica |
| 31' | ⚽ | Blerim Džemaili · Switzerland |
| 31' | ⚽ | Blerim Džemaili · Switzerland |
| 37' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Switzerland |
| 37' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Switzerland |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kendall Waston · Costa Rica |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kendall Waston · Costa Rica |
| 75' | 🟨 | Denis Zakaria · Switzerland |
| 75' | 🟨 | Denis Zakaria · Switzerland |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Switzerland |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Switzerland |
| 88' | ⚽ | Josip Drmic · Switzerland |
| 88' | ⚽ | Josip Drmić · Switzerland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kendall Waston · Costa Rica |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kendall Waston · Costa Rica |
| 90'+3' | ⚽ (og) | Yann Sommer · Costa Rica |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Yann Sommer · Costa Rica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Switzerland | Costa Rica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1457.00 | 2856.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 1806.95 | 1699.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.85 | -25.94 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Stadion Nizhny Novgorod |
| -0.22 |
| — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.83 | 65.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.06 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.50 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.50 | — |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.50 | — |
| squad age | 28.11 | — |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |