← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sun, Jul 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Kuipers · pens 3–4
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Spain win | 61% | 83% | 1.65 | value: +37% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 12% | 4.25 | fair |
| Russia win | 15% | 5% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Stadion Luzhniki |