← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sun, Jul 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Kuipers · pens 3–4
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 61% | 83% | 1.65 | value: +37% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 12% | 4.25 | fair |
| Russia win | 15% | 5% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Sergey Ignashevich · Spain |
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Sergey Ignashevich · Spain |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · Spain |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · Spain |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dzyuba · Russia |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Artem Dzyuba · Russia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ilya Kutepov · Russia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ilya Kutepov · Russia |
| 71' | 🟨 | Roman Zobnin · Russia |
| 71' | 🟨 | Roman Zobnin · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrés Iniesta · Spain |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Fedor Smolov · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Gerard Piqué · Spain |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergey Ignashevich · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Aleksandr Golovin · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Ramos · Spain |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Denis Cheryshev · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Andrés Iniesta · Spain |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Fedor Smolov · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Gerard Piqué · Spain |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Sergey Ignashevich · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Aleksandr Golovin · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Sergio Ramos · Spain |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Denis Cheryshev · Russia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spain | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 2922.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 1941.31 | 1697.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.54 | 5.51 |
| eye test v1 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Stadion Luzhniki |
| 0.88 |
| -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.97 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.00 | 74.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 43.33 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 3.06 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| squad age | 29.60 | 28.50 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.07 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |