← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Mon, Jul 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Rocchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 66% | 83% | 1.55 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 22% | 13% | 4.65 | fair |
| Mexico win | 12% | 3% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · Mexico |
| 38' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · Mexico |
| 43' | 🟨 | Filipe Luís · Brazil |
| 43' | 🟨 | Filipe Luís · Brazil |
| 51' | ⚽ | Neymar · Brazil |
| 51' | ⚽ | Neymar · Brazil |
| 55' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · Mexico |
| 55' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · Mexico |
| 59' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Brazil |
| 59' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Brazil |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · Mexico |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · Mexico |
| 88' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Brazil |
| 88' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Brazil |
| 90'+2' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Mexico |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Mexico |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brazil | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 761.00 | 1005.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 2045.76 | 1789.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.99 | -39.56 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Solidarnost Arena |
| 0.91 |
| 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.56 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 81.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 27.94 |
| state index | 1.99 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |