← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sat, Jul 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Sandro Ricci · pens 3–4
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 46% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Russia win | 24% | 31% | 4.39 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Denis Cheryshev · Russia |
| 31' | ⚽ | Denis Cheryshev · Russia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Croatia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Croatia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ivan Strinic · Croatia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ivan Strinić · Croatia |
| 39' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramaric · Croatia |
| 39' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · Croatia |
| 100' | ⚽ | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| 101' | ⚽ | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| 101' | 🟨 | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| 102' | 🟨 | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| 109' | 🟨 | Iury Gazinsky · Russia |
| 109' | 🟨 | Yuri Gazinskiy · Russia |
| 114' | 🟨 | Josip Pivaric · Croatia |
| 114' | 🟨 | Josip Pivarić · Croatia |
| 115' | ⚽ | Mário Fernandes · Russia |
| 115' | ⚽ | Mário Fernandes · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcelo Brozović · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Alan Dzagoev · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergey Ignashevich · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Modric · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Daler Kuzyaev · Russia |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Rakitić · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Marcelo Brozovic · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Alan Dzagoev · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Luka Modric · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Sergey Ignashevich · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Domagoj Vida · Croatia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Daler Kuzyaev · Russia |
| pens | ✅ shootout | Ivan Rakitić · Croatia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Russia | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2928.00 | 279.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| elo | 1707.16 | 1847.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.78 | 1.41 |
| eye test v1 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 3 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht |
| -0.75 |
| -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.86 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 0.67 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.50 | 80.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 2.50 |
| skill v1 | -1.23 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 28.88 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |