← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Tue, Jul 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Cunha
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 37% | 52% | 2.70 | value: +41% |
| Belgium win | 32% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | ⚽ | Samuel Umtiti · France |
| 51' | ⚽ | Samuel Umtiti · France |
| 63' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Belgium |
| 63' | 🟨 | Eden Hazard · Belgium |
| 71' | 🟨 | Toby Alderweireld · Belgium |
| 71' | 🟨 | Toby Alderweireld · Belgium |
| 87' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · France |
| 87' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · France |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Jan Vertonghen · Belgium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Vertonghen · Belgium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2200.00 | 708.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Saint-Petersburg Stadium |
| 3.20 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | — |
| elo | 1965.48 | 1934.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.39 | 29.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 61.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 84.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 53.50 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.25 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.25 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 28.60 |
| state index | 1.91 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |