← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Wed, Jul 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Çakιr
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 43% | 32% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +13% |
| Croatia win | 25% | 32% | 4.28 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kieran Trippier · England |
| 5' | ⚽ | Kieran Trippier · England |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mario Mandzukic · Croatia |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Croatia |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · England |
| 54' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · England |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 96' | 🟨 | Ante Rebic · Croatia |
| 96' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · Croatia |
| 109' | ⚽ | Mario Mandzukic · Croatia |
| 109' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Croatia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Croatia | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 283.00 | 678.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 1 |
| final home goals | 2 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Stadion Luzhniki |
| 6.00 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | — |
| elo | 1854.88 | 1886.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.22 | 21.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 65.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 2.18 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 54.50 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |