← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sat, Jul 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Faghani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 45% | 42% | 2.28 | fair |
| England win | 30% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 4.00 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Belgium |
| 4' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Belgium |
| 52' | 🟨 | John Stones · England |
| 52' | 🟨 | John Stones · England |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · England |
| 76' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · England |
| 82' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Belgium |
| 82' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Belgium |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Belgium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Belgium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belgium | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 712.00 | 681.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Saint-Petersburg Stadium |
| 5.60 |
| 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| elo | 1937.63 | 1876.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.15 | 7.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 66.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.87 | 25.84 |
| state index | 1.46 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |