← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sun, Jul 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Pitana
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 46% | 55% | 2.21 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Croatia win | 23% | 20% | 4.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Mario Mandzukic · France |
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Mario Mandžukić · France |
| 27' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · France |
| 27' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · France |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ivan Perisic · Croatia |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Hernández · France |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lucas Hernández · France |
| 59' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · France |
| 59' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · France |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mario Mandzukic · Croatia |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Croatia |
| 90'+2' | 🟨 | Sime Vrsaljko · Croatia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Šime Vrsaljko · Croatia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2205.00 | 287.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stadion Luzhniki |
| 4.00 |
| 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| elo | 1980.80 | 1846.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 51.72 | -3.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 66.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.83 | 4.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 29.08 |
| state index | 2.01 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |