← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Mon, Nov 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Raphael Claus
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 70% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.90 | value: +18% |
| Iran win | 9% | 11% | 12.00 | value: +36% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Iran |
| 25' | 🟨 | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Iran |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham · England |
| 43' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 43' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 45'+1' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · England |
| 45' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · England |
| 48' | 🟨 | Morteza Pouraliganji · Iran |
| 48' | 🟨 | Morteza Pouraliganji · Iran |
| 62' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 62' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · Iran |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · Iran |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · England |
| 90'+13' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · Iran |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Grealish · England |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · Iran |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2272.00 | 81.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Khalifa International Stadium |
| 4.40 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | — |
| elo | 1900.05 | 1821.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.46 | -28.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 65.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 62.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 27.00 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -2.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.57 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| squad age | 25.01 | 25.58 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -2.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |