β FIFA World Cup 2022 Β· Tue, Nov 22, 10:00 AM UTC Β· ref: S. VinΔiΔ
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 86% | 79% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 18% | 11.00 | value: +101% |
| Saudi Arabia win | 3% | 3% | 34.00 | value: +10% |
across 4 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | β½ (pen) | Lionel Messi Β· Argentina |
| 10' | β½ (pen) | Lionel Messi Β· Argentina |
| 48' | β½ | Saleh Al-Shehri Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 48' | β½ | Saleh Al-Shehri Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 53' | β½ | Salem Al-Dawsari Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 53' | β½ | Salem Al-Dawsari Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 67' | π¨ | Abdulelah Al-Malki Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 67' | π¨ | Abdulelah Al-Malki Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 75' | π¨ | Ali Al-Bulayhi Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 75' | π¨ | Ali Albulayhi Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 79' | π¨ | Salem Al-Dawsari Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 79' | π¨ | Salem Al-Dawsari Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 82' | π¨ | Saud Abdulhamid Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 82' | π¨ | Saud Abdulhamid Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 88' | π¨ | Nawaf Al-Abid Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 88' | π¨ | Nawaf Al-Abed Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 90'+2' | π¨ | Mohammed Al-Owais Β· Saudi Arabia |
| 90' | π¨ | Mohammed Al-Owais Β· Saudi Arabia |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1574.00 | 1240.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | β |
| elo | 2007.52 | 1674.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.67 | -16.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | β |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 59.67 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 5.92 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | 1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.33 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 28.23 |
| state index | 2.57 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |