← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Tue, Nov 22, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: V. Gomes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 80% | 67% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 21% | 7.25 | value: +54% |
| Australia win | 7% | 12% | 15.00 | value: +73% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Craig Goodwin · Australia |
| 9' | ⚽ | Craig Goodwin · Australia |
| 27' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · France |
| 27' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · France |
| 32' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 32' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mitchell Duke · Australia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mitchell Duke · Australia |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 71' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 71' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jackson Irvine · Australia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jackson Irvine · Australia |
| 90'+4' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Australia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Mooy · Australia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3796.00 | 1513.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Janoub Stadium |
| 4.60 |
| — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | — |
| elo | 1947.64 | 1770.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.12 | 17.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.50 | 54.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.14 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 27.56 |
| state index | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |