← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Thu, Nov 24, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Elfath
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 74% | 85% | 1.34 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.80 | fair |
| Ghana win | 9% | 3% | 11.50 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · Ghana |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mohammed Kudus · Ghana |
| 49' | 🟨 | André Ayew · Ghana |
| 49' | 🟨 | André Ayew · Ghana |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Ghana |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Ghana |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo · Portugal |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo · Portugal |
| 73' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Ghana |
| 73' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Ghana |
| 78' | ⚽ | João Félix · Portugal |
| 78' | ⚽ | João Félix · Portugal |
| 80' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Portugal |
| 80' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Portugal |
| 89' | ⚽ | Osman Bukari · Ghana |
| 89' | ⚽ | Osman Bukari · Ghana |
| 90'+1' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Ghana |
| 90'+1' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · Portugal |
| 90'+5' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · Portugal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Ghana |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portugal | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3006.00 | 327.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1920.82 | 1683.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.75 | 24.74 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Stadium 974 |
| 0.15 |
| — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.33 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.99 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.67 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.33 | — |
| rest days | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.67 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | — |
| squad age | 27.01 | — |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |