← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Nov 25, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal win | 56% | 33% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +9% |
| Qatar win | 17% | 37% | 6.25 | value: +133% ⚠ |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Ismail Mohamad · Qatar |
| 20' | 🟨 | Ismael Mohammed · Qatar |
| 30' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Senegal |
| 30' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Senegal |
| 41' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Senegal |
| 41' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Senegal |
| 45'+2' | 🟨 | Homam Ahmed · Qatar |
| 45' | 🟨 | Homam Al-Amin · Qatar |
| 48' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Senegal |
| 48' | ⚽ | Famara Diédhiou · Senegal |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ismail Jakobs · Senegal |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ismail Jakobs · Senegal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mohammed Muntari · Qatar |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mohammed Muntari · Qatar |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bamba Dieng · Senegal |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Senegal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pathé Ciss · Senegal |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Senegal |
| 90'+1' | 🟨 | Assim Madibo · Qatar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assim Madibo · Qatar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Qatar | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2276.00 | 147.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1653.33 | 1762.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.73 | 6.89 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Al Thumama Stadium |
| -0.70 |
| -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 65.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.50 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.67 | 42.50 |
| rest days | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.56 | 28.42 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |