← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Nov 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 62% | 79% | 1.58 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 16% | 4.10 | fair |
| Mexico win | 13% | 5% | 8.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · Mexico |
| 22' | 🟨 | Néstor Araujo · Mexico |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Érick Gutiérrez · Mexico |
| 50' | 🟨 | Érick Gutiérrez · Mexico |
| 64' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 64' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 66' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · Mexico |
| 66' | 🟨 | Héctor Herrera · Mexico |
| 87' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 87' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 89' | 🟨 | Roberto Alvarado · Mexico |
| 89' | 🟨 | Roberto Alvarado · Mexico |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1578.00 | 1425.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| elo | 1977.67 | 1784.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.88 | -17.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.33 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.58 | 28.78 |
| state index | 1.38 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |