← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Mon, Nov 28, 10:00 AM UTC · ref: Mohamed Abdulla Hassan Mohd
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 57% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
| Cameroon win | 18% | 17% | 5.70 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Christian Bassogog · Cameroon |
| -5' | 🟨 | Luka Jović · Serbia |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nicolas Nkoulou · Cameroon |
| 24' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Cameroon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Cameroon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Cameroon |
| 30' | 🟨 | Christian Bassogog · Cameroon |
| 45'+1' | ⚽ | Strahinja Pavlovic · Serbia |
| 45'+3' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinkovic-Savic · Serbia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Strahinja Pavlović · Serbia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · Serbia |
| 45'+4' | 🟨 | Luka Jovic · Serbia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Serbia |
| 53' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrovic · Serbia |
| 63' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 63' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Cameroon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Cameroon |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenkovic · Serbia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Serbia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cameroon | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 272.00 | 637.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1671.27 | 1788.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.02 | 33.30 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Al Janoub Stadium |
| 0.67 |
| -1.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.14 | 65.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.93 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.75 | 78.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.50 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.63 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.25 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 1.67 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 27.05 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |