← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Mon, Nov 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Faghani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 50% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Uruguay win | 21% | 20% | 4.70 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Uruguay |
| 6' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Uruguay |
| 38' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Portugal |
| 38' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Portugal |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Uruguay |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Uruguay |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
| 77' | 🟨 | João Félix · Portugal |
| 77' | 🟨 | João Félix · Portugal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Portugal |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Portugal |
| 90'+3' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Portugal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portugal | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3010.00 | 362.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| — |
| 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| elo | 1934.09 | 1858.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | -11.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 59.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.50 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.25 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.25 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 28.70 |
| state index | 1.58 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |