← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Tue, Nov 29, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Vinčić
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 67% | 50% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.60 | value: +34% |
| Wales win | 11% | 21% | 9.80 | value: +103% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Wales |
| 29' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Wales |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
| 50' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
| 51' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · England |
| 51' | ⚽ | Phil Foden · England |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsey · Wales |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aaron Ramsey · Wales |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · England |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wales | England |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1793.00 | 2280.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium |
| 5.00 |
| 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| elo | 1681.72 | 1913.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.46 | 26.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.33 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 2.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |