β FIFA World Cup 2022 Β· Tue, Nov 29, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Antonio Mateu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States win | 50% | 35% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.60 | value: +25% |
| Iran win | 23% | 30% | 4.60 | value: +37% |
across 4 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | π¨ | Hossein Kanaani Β· Iran |
| 38' | β½ | Christian Pulisic Β· United States |
| 38' | β½ | Christian PuliΕ‘iΔ Β· United States |
| 43' | π¨ | Tyler Adams Β· United States |
| 43' | π¨ | Tyler Adams Β· United States |
| 77' | π¨ | Majid Hosseini Β· Iran |
| 77' | π¨ | Majid Hosseini Β· Iran |
| 83' | π¨ | Hossein Kanani Β· Iran |
| 90'+6' | π¨ | Abolfazl Jalali Β· Iran |
| 90' | π¨ | Abolfazl Jalali Β· Iran |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Iran | United States |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 1428.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Thumama Stadium |
| 5.20 |
| β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | β |
| elo | 1823.72 | 1833.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.48 | 11.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.25 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.52 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.40 | β |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 28.20 | 56.50 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | β |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.56 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.50 |
| squad age | 29.56 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.52 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |