← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Thu, Dec 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 88% | 56% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 26% | 12.00 | value: +208% ⚠ |
| Costa Rica win | 3% | 18% | 32.00 | value: +472% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · Germany |
| 10' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · Germany |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yeltsin Tejeda · Costa Rica |
| 58' | ⚽ | Yeltsin Tejeda · Costa Rica |
| 70' | ⚽ | Juan Pablo Vargas · Costa Rica |
| 70' | ⚽ | Juan Pablo Vargas · Costa Rica |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Germany |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Germany |
| 76' | 🟨 | Óscar Duarte · Costa Rica |
| 76' | 🟨 | Óscar Duarte · Costa Rica |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Germany |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Germany |
| 89' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Germany |
| 89' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · Germany |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Costa Rica | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1430.00 | 487.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Bayt Stadium |
| — |
| 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 7.20 |
| elo | 1726.95 | 1879.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.99 | -5.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.26 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 31.79 | 28.23 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |