← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay win | 54% | 65% | 1.82 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Ghana win | 21% | 9% | 4.90 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Uruguay |
| 19' | 🟨 | Darwin Núñez · Uruguay |
| 26' | ⚽ | Giorgian de Arrascaeta · Uruguay |
| 26' | ⚽ | Giorgian De Arrascaeta · Uruguay |
| 32' | ⚽ | Giorgian de Arrascaeta · Uruguay |
| 32' | ⚽ | Giorgian De Arrascaeta · Uruguay |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · Uruguay |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · Uruguay |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Ghana |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kamaldeen Sulemana · Ghana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sebastián Coates · Uruguay |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sebastián Coates · Uruguay |
| 90'+9' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Ghana |
| 90'+10' | 🟨 | Edinson Cavani · Uruguay |
| 90'+10' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Uruguay |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Ghana |
| 90' | 🟨 | José María Giménez · Uruguay |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edinson Cavani · Uruguay |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ghana | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 366.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Janoub Stadium |
| — |
| 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 3.20 |
| elo | 1698.45 | 1860.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.71 | -14.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.50 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 28.71 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |