← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Rapallini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia win | 38% | 54% | 2.62 | value: +41% ⚠ |
| Switzerland win | 34% | 23% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.45 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Predrag Rajković · Serbia |
| 15' | 🟨 | Silvan Widmer · Switzerland |
| 20' | ⚽ | Xherdan Shaqiri · Switzerland |
| 26' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Mitrović · Serbia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Rubén Vargas · Switzerland |
| 35' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · Serbia |
| 44' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · Switzerland |
| 47' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · Serbia |
| 48' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Switzerland |
| 56' | 🟨 | Strahinja Pavlović · Serbia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nemanja Gudelj · Serbia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Mitrović · Serbia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Serbia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Serbia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Schär · Switzerland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Switzerland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Serbia | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 641.00 | 488.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| elo | 1774.51 | 1814.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.04 |
| venue | Stadium 974 |
| 16.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.25 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.75 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.75 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 2.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 28.14 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |