← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Elfath
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil win | 72% | 87% | 1.39 | value: +21% ⚠ |
| Draw | 18% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
| Cameroon win | 10% | 3% | 11.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Nouhou Tolo · Cameroon |
| 6' | 🟨 | Nouhou Tolo · Cameroon |
| 7' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Brazil |
| 7' | 🟨 | Éder Militão · Brazil |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pierre Kunde · Cameroon |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pierre Kunde · Cameroon |
| 32' | 🟨 | Collins Fai · Cameroon |
| 32' | 🟨 | Collins Fai · Cameroon |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 81' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Brazil |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bruno Guimarães · Brazil |
| 90'+2' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 90'+3' | 🟥 | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · Cameroon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cameroon | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | 2375.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 4.20 |
| 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| elo | 1692.06 | 2062.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.40 | -4.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.75 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 6.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 28.12 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |