← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wilton Pereira Sampaio
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | 50% | 57% | 1.99 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| United States win | 22% | 18% | 4.70 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Netherlands |
| 10' | ⚽ | Memphis Depay · Netherlands |
| 45'+1' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · Netherlands |
| 45' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · Netherlands |
| 60' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Netherlands |
| 60' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Netherlands |
| 76' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · United States |
| 76' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · United States |
| 81' | ⚽ | Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands |
| 81' | ⚽ | Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands |
| 87' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · Netherlands |
| 87' | 🟨 | Frenkie de Jong · Netherlands |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Netherlands | United States |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 489.00 | 1432.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Khalifa International Stadium |
| — |
| 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 7.20 |
| elo | 1954.63 | 1836.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.67 | 23.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.50 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.75 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 24.97 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |