← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Dec 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Marciniak
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 75% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +12% |
| Australia win | 10% | 5% | 13.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jackson Irvine · Australia |
| 15' | 🟨 | Jackson Irvine · Australia |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 38' | 🟨 | Milos Degenek · Australia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Miloš Degenek · Australia |
| 57' | ⚽ | Julián Álvarez · Argentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Argentina |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Enzo Fernández · Australia |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Enzo Fernández · Australia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1585.00 | 1524.00 |
| congestion 21d | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Ahmad bin Ali Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| elo | 2004.11 | 1802.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.44 | 38.83 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.66 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.75 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 28.87 |
| state index | 1.72 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |