← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Valenzuela
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 70% | 68% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.10 | fair |
| Poland win | 11% | 13% | 10.50 | value: +33% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · France |
| 31' | 🟨 | Aurélien Tchouaméni · France |
| 44' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 44' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszynski · Poland |
| 47' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Poland |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Poland |
| 88' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Poland |
| 90'+1' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 90'+9' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · Poland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · Poland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Poland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3808.00 | 1617.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Thumama Stadium |
| 4.60 |
| 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | — |
| elo | 1944.10 | 1748.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.66 | -2.18 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 56.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.17 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 28.73 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |