← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sun, Dec 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Ivan Cisneros
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England win | 60% | 76% | 1.64 | value: +24% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 17% | 3.95 | fair |
| Senegal win | 14% | 7% | 7.00 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ | Jordan Henderson · England |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jordan Henderson · England |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · England |
| 45'+3' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · England |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 57' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · England |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · Senegal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · Senegal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | England | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2285.00 | 156.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Al Bayt Stadium |
| 3.80 |
| 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | — |
| elo | 1932.21 | 1791.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.53 | 42.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 66.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.40 |
| state index | 1.55 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.21 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |